AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
KAMU HARCAMALARININ ENFLASYONİST ETKİSİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Author : Taner AKÇACI -- Esra KARAPINAR KOCAĞ
Number of pages : 1-18

Abstract

Inflation which is one of the most important issues of the economic policy up to present has always been a striking subject in economics literature. Inflation which is a instability indicator for the economical process, has several both economic and social problems like decreasing of production, increasing of budget deficit, low level of welfare, troubled income distribution etc. Budget deficit and government expenditures which are parallel to raising share of government as part of the concept of welfare state in economy stand out between monetary and fiscal reasons of inflation. Government expenditures in modern sense are expenditures that satisfy social needs, regulate the social and economic life according to some certain rules. On one hand those expenditures happen in a country, on the other hand there are some policies to fix the inflation in a certain level. The main aim of this study is explicating the effects of government expenditures on inflation in terms of types of expenditures. In this study, Johansen co-integration and Granger causality analysis are applied by using the monthly data, 2006:01-2012:12. As a result, determined that there is a short-run, unidirectional Granger causality from personnel, transfer, good and services expenditures and interest payments to inflation. Correspondingly, there is no granger causality from government capital expenditures to inflation. The causality with government expenditure and inflation is significant statistically in the model which in TÜFE series is dependent in long run.

Keywords

Government Expenditures, Inflation, Johansen Co-integration, Granger Causality.

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