AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
THE ANALYSE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN AFYONKARAHISAR (TURKEY) IN RESPECT OF BOX-JENKINS TECHNIQUE

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Number of pages : 195-212

Summary

Research area is Afyonkarahisar Province which takes place inland, 800 km from coast. Continental climate characters are seen in area. Afyonkarahisar which takes place in central west part of Aegean region in southwest of Turkey. It is also in crossroads because Afyonkarahisar is in the boundaries of Mediterranean Central Anatolia and Aegean regions. According to climate type models, the climate of research area is sub-humid in respect of de Martonne, it is semi-arid in respect of Erinç, it is generally arid and low degree humid and according to Aydeniz climate classification, it is arid. Box-Jenkins technique (ARIMA) which is a method of analyses and prediction in time series, has been used in the study. According to this method, trend analyses have been made in respect of long annual mean of temperature and precipitation in Afyonkarahisar. According to ARIMA model, the predictions have been produced until the year 2015 and according to Quadratic ve Linear Trend models, predictions have been produced until the year 2025. According to ARIMA model, an increase in precipitation as 14 mm. has been predicted until the year 2015. According to Quadratic Trend model, a decrease in precipitation as 20 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in precipitation as 2-3 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. On the other hand, According to ARIMA model, an increase in temperature as 0,3-0,4 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. According to Quadratic Trend model, an increase in temperature as 1,2 °C. has been predicted until the year 2025 And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in temperature as 0,5 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. This decrease in temperature correspond to the increases in temperature as 1,4-5,8 °C which are predicted by United Nations between the year 1990-2100.

Keywords

Box-Jenkins Technique, Climatic Change, temperature, precipitation, Afyonkarahisar.

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